Rate Volatility Is Exposing Weak Cost Accounting (and Fleets Know It)

Every time the market twitches, I see the same thing happen inside trucking operations.

Loads get accepted on “gut feel.” Dispatch is told to “keep the wheels turning.” A lane that “used to be good” keeps getting covered, even when the rate slides. Then Friday hits, the week “looks busy,” and somehow cash is still tight.

That is not a rate problem. That is a cost accounting problem.

Right now, rates are moving in sharp, annoying bursts. December spot rates jumped hard even though freight volume only moved a little, mostly because weather and seasonal demand tightened capacity fast. DAT’s December numbers are a clean example of how quickly the market can swing: national average spot van was reported at $2.29/mile, up $0.20 from November. C.H. Robinson’s January 2026 update is basically saying the same thing in polite language: volatility is still here, and the market reacts aggressively to disruptions.

When volatility is the norm, weak cost accounting stops being “messy,” and starts becoming fatal.

The real issue: most fleets still cannot tell true cost per mile by lane

Ask a fleet for “cost per mile” and you’ll often get a single number. That number is usually wrong in the ways that matter most.

Because lane profitability is not one blended CPM. It is a lane-specific, behavior-specific reality.

The same truck can run $2.05 all-in CPM on one lane and $2.75 on another.
The same “miles” can be clean highway miles, or stop-and-go, or heavy dwell, or cross-border freight with extra admin time.
The same “rate” can look fine until you include deadhead, trailer repositioning, layovers, claims friction, and the unpaid time nobody allocates.

So what do many fleets do instead?

They guess profitability. They use averages. They confuse revenue per mile with profit per mile. They mix contract and spot performance into one soup. Then they wonder why the P&L feels like it belongs to a different company.

Why this is getting worse in 2026, not better

A few trends are stacking pressure on fleets, and they all punish bad numbers.

1) The market is snapping between “too loose” and “suddenly tight.” That December rate surge on limited volume is exactly the kind of whiplash that exposes who actually knows their floor price.

2) Fuel may ease, but that does not save weak accounting. Multiple 2026 outlook pieces are pointing toward lower or more manageable diesel costs versus recent years, including EIA-based reporting that forecasts a modest decline in 2026 averages. Good. But if your overhead allocation is sloppy, lower fuel just hides the problem longer. It does not fix it.

3) Payment and broker risk is becoming a bigger operational factor. A long-awaited FMCSA broker financial responsibility rule taking effect in mid-January 2026 tightens how broker/freight forwarder financial security is handled, including quicker action when security falls below required thresholds. Whether you love brokers or hate them, tighter enforcement changes the risk landscape. If your “profit” depends on slow-pay lanes or disputed accessorials you never collect, your accounting is lying to you.

A quick reality check scenario (this is where fleets bleed)

Let’s say you run Chicago to Dallas. The rate comes in at $2.15/mile on paper. Dispatch likes it because it keeps the driver moving.

But your real trip economics look like this:

120 miles deadhead to recover equipment after a bad reload
6 hours dwell at shipper, no detention collected because nobody documented it correctly
Toll-heavy route because the driver tried to save time
Trailer washout you did not plan for
Driver pay structure that spikes on that lane because of weekend positioning
Maintenance reserve not applied correctly, so your CPM looks “lower” than it is

On the load sheet, it still looks “fine.” In reality, it is a slow leak that gets worse every week you keep saying yes.

That is the quiet killer of trucking operations: repeating a lane because it “feels normal,” not because it is profitable.

The solution: lane-level cost accounting you can actually use in dispatch

You do not need a PhD model. You need discipline and clean structure. Here’s a practical framework fleets can implement without turning the company into an accounting project.

Step 1: Build a “true CPM stack” (and stop hiding costs)

Your CPM must include these categories, consistently:

Variable costs (trip-sensitive)

Driver pay (including payroll burden)
Fuel (net of fuel surcharge strategy, not wishful thinking)
Tolls, scales, lumper, washouts
Maintenance and tires (use a reserve if you cannot allocate perfectly)
Claims and safety incident cost reserve (yes, it counts)

Semi-variable costs (behavior-sensitive)

Deadhead miles
Dwell and detention (collected vs uncollected)
Trailer repositioning
Dispatch labor time (especially on problem freight)

Fixed costs (must be allocated, not ignored)

Truck payment/lease
Insurance
Permits, compliance, ELD, tech stack
G&A overhead

If you skip any of these, you are not calculating cost. You are doing a motivational spreadsheet.

Step 2: Move from “company CPM” to “lane CPM”

Start with your top 20 lanes by volume or revenue. Do not boil the ocean.

For each lane, calculate:

Loaded miles CPM
Total miles CPM (loaded + deadhead)
Average dwell cost per load (your internal cost, not what you bill)
Accessorial capture rate (what you should bill vs what you actually collect)

This is where the truth shows up. A lane that looks “busy” often becomes your worst lane once you include total miles and uncollected time.

Step 3: Put a floor price inside dispatch strategy

Dispatch cannot operate on vibes. Give them a floor.

For each lane, set:

Hard floor rate (below this, you decline unless there is a strategic reposition reason)
Soft floor rate (below this, approval required with a written reason)
Reposition value (what is a “loss leader” worth if it sets up the next load)

This is fleet optimization in real life. You are turning accounting into operational decision-making.

Step 4: Track “leakage” weekly, not quarterly

Most fleets wait until month-end and then argue with the P&L.

Instead, track these weekly:

Deadhead percentage by lane
Detention billed vs collected
Accessorial billed vs collected
Maintenance cost spikes by truck and lane type
Revenue per day per truck (not just per mile)

If you only track per-mile metrics, you miss the time-based reality that kills profit.

What this fixes immediately

When cost accounting gets tighter, a few things happen fast:

You stop chasing “good rates” that are actually bad freight.
Your drivers get less chaotic weeks because you cut problem freight intentionally.
You negotiate better because you can explain your price, lane by lane, with facts.
You reduce empty miles because you stop accepting freight that forces bad repositioning.
You get calmer during volatility because you know your numbers, not your feelings.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: fleets that still cannot price by lane are going to be the first ones squeezed when volatility hits again, because they will accept freight that only looks profitable on the surface.

The takeaway for 2026

Rate volatility is not the enemy. Ignorance is. The market will keep snapping, weather disruptions will keep tightening capacity unexpectedly, and payment risk dynamics are shifting under brokers and carriers alike. If you cannot answer, with confidence, “What is my true cost per mile on this lane, including total miles and time leakage?” then you are not managing trucking operations. You are gambling with nicer vocabulary.

Fix the accounting, and dispatch gets smarter. Fix dispatch strategy, and fleet optimization becomes real. Fix those two, and volatility becomes something you navigate, not something that breaks you.

About the Author:

Bhavya Vashisht is the Director of Operations at Canamex Carbra Transportation and the voice behind Truck & Trade Trends. He shares field-tested insights from the frontlines of U.S. trucking and logistics to help fleets operate smarter, safer, and more profitably.

👉 Connect with me on LinkedIn (Bhavya Vashisht) for more insights on trucking, logistics, and fleet optimization.

👉 Subscribe to the Truck & Trade Trends newsletter to stay ahead of weekly supply chain updates, real-world fleet stories, and strategies shaping the future of logistics