Peak Season Whiplash: Tariffs, Timing, and the Ugly Side of “Demand Spikes”

No More Predictable Peaks. Welcome to Chaos by Design

Let’s be honest: If you’re still running your ops based on the traditional “peak season” calendar, you’re missing the bigger storm. This year, the peak didn’t just shift; it ambushed us, and most teams I’ve spoken to are still reeling.

What happened? Simple: The threat of new tariffs, especially on goods from China, triggered a full-on panic-buying spree. Shippers, tired of getting caught flat-footed, started pulling Q3 and even Q4 inventory into May and June. If you’re watching West Coast intermodal stats, you saw the same thing I did, a jump nobody planned for, then a scramble as everyone from retail giants to electronics importers fought for any available dry van slot.

What the Headlines Don’t Say

Here’s what the mainstream media and LinkedIn “gurus” won’t tell you:

The surge wasn’t a sign of market health. Carriers didn’t gain pricing power. If anything, they absorbed more risk for less reward.
“Demand planning” failed at most organizations. The folks who won? The ones with inside connections at the ports, eyes on real-time import data, and the nerve to book capacity before others even realized what was happening.
Capacity strain revealed the deep cracks in ‘digital freight matching’ tools. When everyone’s algorithm bids at once, the ‘smart market’ turns into a digital traffic jam.

How It Actually Played Out (A True Scenario)

Take the case of a mid-sized electronics importer I consult for. Normally, they rely on a handful of preferred carriers and expect smooth tendering. This May, with tariff rumors swirling, their supply chain lead panicked, “We need 300 more containers by June 1.” Suddenly, those trusted carrier partners ghosted them, focused on mega-shippers who could guarantee repeat loads and absorb rate hikes. Their team tried to cover with spot market bids, but platforms were flooded, rates yo-yoed by the hour, and actual truck availability lagged two days behind digital acceptances. By the time they got it sorted, warehouse receiving was a mess, their cost-per-container was up 40%, and OTIF (On-Time, In-Full) fell off a cliff.

Where We’re Failing as an Industry

Let’s not kid ourselves:

Our “forecasting” models are backward-looking, not scenario-driven.
Relationship-based procurement is getting replaced by click-to-bid tech—and when things go sideways, those algorithms won’t call you back.
Most fleets (except the top 5%) don’t have the bench strength or data analytics to play chess with the big boys.

The Real Risks (And Why Most Teams Will Repeat This Mistake)

Rate Volatility Isn’t a Symptom; It’s the Disease If you still price annual contracts based on historical averages, you’re letting the market eat your lunch. The new winners float their contracts, revisit them monthly, and are ready to walk away mid-quarter.
Intermodal Coordination is Still a Black Hole During the May surge, West Coast rail spiked, but downstream drayage and transloading partners weren’t looped in. The result? Freight bottlenecked in Chicago and Dallas, and shippers paid extra for ‘emergency’ cross-docks.
Data Transparency: The Big Lie Tech vendors promised real-time dashboards. But how many execs actually had access to actionable, lane-specific intelligence when they needed it? Most leaders I know still get their best info from WhatsApp driver groups and frantic calls to old contacts at the ports.

So, What’s Actually Working? (Insider Playbook)

If you’re serious about surviving the next tariff shock, here’s what I see working in the field—not in glossy webinars:

1. Aggressive Pre-Tendering & Scenario Playbooks

The top-performing shippers ran “tariff drills” months in advance: What happens if tariffs hit July 1? August 15? They didn’t just model rates, they built comms trees, staged carrier reserves, and locked warehouse labor weeks early.

2. Broker/Carrier Partnerships with Teeth

The best brokers aren’t just matching loads; they’re offering capacity swaps and load-sharing alliances behind closed doors. Some regional carriers are quietly pooling drivers and assets, no public announcements, just handshake deals and NDAs.

3. Intermodal Contingencies

The savviest players built “parallel paths” with intermodal, truckload, and even expedited air on standby. If the port got backed up, they could swing 10-15% of their volume elsewhere, costly, but better than eating late fees or customer chargebacks.

4. Real-Time Costing & Micro-Contracts

Smart logistics teams aren’t waiting for quarterly reviews. They’re running lane-by-lane cost reviews every Friday, flagging trouble zones and giving procurement power to frontline managers.

5. Tech-Plus-Human Decision Loops

When it gets wild, algorithms can only get you so far. The winners pair dashboards with daily huddles, real voices, fast calls, escalation at the first sign of a lane bottleneck.

Industry Wake-Up Call: Are You Ready for the Next Shock?

If you’re reading this because you genuinely want to know what’s next, here’s my advice: Stop expecting the old patterns to return. The era of “peak season” is dead. From now on, it’s rolling surges, tariff-induced chaos, and a premium on speed, relationships, and adaptive strategy.

Ask yourself:

How fast can your team shift gears really?
Who in your org actually knows what’s happening at the port, the rail yard, and in your competitor’s playbook?
Are you pricing for risk, or just praying the market will stabilize?

The teams that thrive now won’t just be “tech-enabled”, they’ll be battle-tested, scrappy, and ruthless about adapting to whatever chaos comes next.

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